For the first time in a long time, the balance of the world economy tends towards the East. Analytical Center of Economics and Business (CEBR), located in London, believes that even as early as in 2008, the total weight of the United States, Canada and Europe in the global GDP was less than half (49.4%), and three years will fall to 45%.
Not so long ago the figure was about 60%. As “RBC daily” writes, the first time since the beginning of the industrial revolution in the XIX Old and New Light will yield the palm to developing countries led by China.
CEBR previously predicted that the economic hegemony of the West would soon end, because even in 2007 China was the third in world economies, but the turning point was named in 2015. After the financial crisis made its adjustments, the process of redistribution of forces in the global economy only increased.
“The Center of the financial crisis is in developed countries, so a recession in the economy of the West is expected. As a result, developing countries, especially China, will increase their share in global GDP this year. This will accelerate the existing trend of moving the economic power from the Group of Seven major Developing States to developing countries”, – said Oxford University economist Linda Yue.
Thus, CEBR expects that China will become world’s second economy this year, thus getting ahead of Japan. The forecast is very realistic, since when the crisis began the Land of the Rising Sun has been experiencing a huge drop in demand for its products.
Analysts point out that all countries are facing the economic recession, but in developing countries it takes place in a mild form. And the recovery process there will be more successful. This can be seen even now. Over the past three months the stock market in Latin America showed an increase of 78%, East Asia (excluding Japan) – rose by 66%. For comparison: American index S & P 500 rose by only 35%.
Bill Gross, the head of one of the world’s largest asset management company Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), also talked on the precariousness of the economic prospects of the absolute leadership of the U.S. last week. He pointed out that the growing budget deficit and uncertain prospects for further economic growth pose a threat to the highest credit rating (AAA) of the United States, which they currently have.